Adapting through innovation

Existing for more than three decades, ETFs have become a mainstay in today’s investment marketplace.

 

The ability of ETFs to adapt quickly has been key to their ongoing success

 

Resilience

Demand for ETFs has soared recently, largely due to the sector’s resilience—its ability to adapt quickly to a rapidly-changing environment, regardless of the market environment. Some recent ETF innovations include:

Actively-managed funds
ETFs generally began life as passive funds that track an underlying index—highly liquid investments that offer more favourable cost structures than mutual funds.  However, the accompanying return is limited to that of the index and, as investors became more comfortable with the ETF product, they started looking for above-index returns. Actively-managed funds served as the logical solution.

Semi-transparent structures
Transparency is a key characteristic of ETFs. However, this attribute has a drawback within the active space. In markets such as the US, ETF managers are required to disclose their underlying securities daily. Not surprisingly, active managers have been reluctant to enter the ETF space based on the requirement to disclose their “secret sauce”—the custom technique that is delivering above-index returns. In response, the ETF industry has developed semi-transparent fund structures where the manager discloses details of the portfolio less frequently—or via a proxy basket or intermediary. This helps to protect the managers’ intellectual capital.

Mutual fund conversions
The recent growth of ETF investment flows has caught the attention of mutual fund managers, particularly active managers in the US. Supported by the advent of semi-transparent ETFs, managers have recently begun to consider mutual fund conversions to ETFs, providing the opportunity to attract additional investors while leveraging their existing asset base and track record. There is a similar trend in the Canadian market where active ETFs are already the largest number by ETF type1—at least partially due to the country’s innovative approach to ETF disclosure requirements. Canadian niche managers are also looking to leverage their existing assets and performance record to create active ETFs.

ETF series
The addition of an ETF series to an existing or new mutual fund trust has recently seen growing interest from mutual fund issuers looking to broaden distribution into the ETF space. This fund structure enjoys the benefits of scale due to the management of multiple series in a single fund and lower fixed costs by not having to maintain separate mutual funds and ETFs. However, the ETF series is generally subject to additional spread costs and may not provide the same transparency as standalone ETFs.

Thematic investing
ETFs are also immersing themselves in the thematic space—a key growth area as the younger demographic looks to invest in “trends” rather than specific companies. These themes encompass sectors such as ESG (environmental, social and governance), technology, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, healthcare and robotics.

ESG investing
Europe is leading the way in embracing ESG investing. ESG ETFs in Europe recorded $54 billion in inflows during 2022, accounting for 65% of all fund flows to the European ETF market, according to Morningstar.2

Digital assets
The digital asset space is also becoming more attractive for ETFs. Canadian regulators allow direct ownership of underlying cryptocurrency  and, in early 2024, the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first US-listed ETF to track bitcoin.3 Crypto is likely to play an increasingly important role in multi-asset strategy ETFs going forward.

Next

What does the future hold for ETFs? Ongoing innovation, growth and resiliency are likely to characterize the ETF world going forward as managers continue to push ETFs beyond their original “plain-vanilla" approach.

For example, in response to equity market volatility and ongoing product innovation, investors are increasingly embracing fixed income and commodity ETFs as potential alternatives to equity ETFs. A recent survey of ETF-focused investors found that 77% plan to maintain or increase their allocations to fixed income ETFs, while nearly two-thirds are looking to maintain or increase their allocations to commodity ETFs.4

In a PwC survey of executives representing firms that account for 80% of global ETF assets, more than half of respondents predicted that ETF assets under management (AUM) would reach at least $18 trillion by 2026, representing a 14.6% compound annual growth rate between June 2021 and June 2026. Based on the 22% annual average ETF growth rate achieved globally over the five-year period ending December 2020, PwC increased its AUM growth projection to more than $20 trillion and a 17% annual average growth rate over the five-year period.5

While the 2022 bear market temporarily constrained ETF asset growth, assets bounced back in 2023. Net asset inflows and the creation of new ETFs continued at a strong pace throughout 2022 and 2023 (see “Record of growth”).

 

Indications are that investor interest in ETFs will not be abating anytime soon

 

One might also conclude that the recent flourish of new initiatives in the ETF space will limit the sector’s ability to adapt and innovate going forward. This is unlikely to be the case as asset managers continue to effect change going forward:

  • Managers will increasingly require their asset servicers and other partners to provide access to quantitative data, as well as enriched qualitative data as they look to develop a differentiated ETF product offering and build an efficient organization
  • Managers will expect agility to be at the core of their providers’ servicing approach, focusing on a digital, cloud-based, API-led strategy that enables efficient and effective service delivery to managers
  • The middle and back offices must continue to automate and standardize operational processes in response to the fast-changing marketplace; initiatives such as T+1 will only serve to further increase the rate of change
  • In pivoting to ETFs, mutual fund managers will be looking to their asset servicing partners for assistance in adapting to the ETF eco-system and meeting other related operational challenges such as the inability of ETFs to accommodate fractional shares, which are particularly common among US pension plans with mutual fund investments
  • Market expansion is likely to move up a notch or two on the manager priority list, including Asia-Pacific and Latin America5
  • Managers will continue to develop an increasingly diverse range of complex ETFs for retail investors—something that may well generate heightened regulatory oversight.6

Regardless of the ultimate outcomes, there will be no shortage of change for ETF managers.

1 ETF and Index Funds Report—Canada, Investor Economics, Q2 2022
2 European ESG ETFs grab 65 percent of inflows in 2022, finds Morningstar, IR Magazine, January 13, 2023
3 US SEC approves bitcoin ETFs, The Globe and Mail, January 11, 2024
4 2023 global ETF Investor Survey, Brown Brothers Harriman, January 2023
5 ETFs 2026:  The next big Leap, PwC, 2021
6 US regulatory scrutiny of ‘complex’ ETFs prompts fears of crackdown, S&P Global, May 3, 2022