The June 2025 Monthly Forecast Update from RBC Economics includes a forward-looking analysis of Canadian, US and international financial market trends.
Highlights
“Comfortably numb best describes our reaction to the latest trade news, that been relatively quiet over the last month—at least compared to the barrage of tariffs threatened and imposed from February to April.”
—RBC Monthly Forecast Update
- Growth forecasts for Canada and the United States were upgraded, with Canada expected to benefit from fiscal tailwinds—especially in 2026. The GDP forecast for 2026 has been revised higher, up 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%.
- Further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada are not expected in 2025 as direct trade uncertainty facing Canada recedes.
- Trade policy continues to fluctuate with impacts for many countries. Average US tariffs edged slightly higher from a month ago due to increased rates on steel and aluminum products.
- Early trade data reinforces the view that Canada is better placed among major US trade partners given CUSMA exemptions.
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