RBC Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook

US trade risks derailing a recovery in Canada

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RBC Economics presents an in-depth analysis of the key drivers of economic activity in Canada and the US, including global factors that affect near-term forecasts. 

Highlights

“The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.”

RBC Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook

  • The CUSMA trade deal backstop will only go so far.
  • Canada’s retaliatory measures are more targeted than US policies but will increase Canadian prices.
  • The Bank of Canada is likely to cut interest rates further.
  • Tariffs and uncertainty are likely to slow the Canadian economic recovery.

 

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Sources

RBC Economics, Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook, Q1 2025