Staying ahead of shifting market conditions starts with the right intelligence. The September 2026 Monthly Forecast Update from RBC Economics helps you stay a step ahead with timely, forward-looking analysis of the trends shaping Canadian, US and international financial markets.
Highlights
- Resurging oil prices are lifting headline inflation in both Canada and the United States, with Canadian CPI now expected to end 2026 closer to 3%—up from the 2.5% assumed in August—but passthrough to core inflation is expected to remain gradual and limited.
- The Fed is now expected to hike as inflation in August likely tipped a majority of the FOMC toward rate increases in September. Three follow-up hikes expected this year, effectively unwinding 75 basis points of “insurance” cuts made in 2025.
- The BoC is also expected to hike but from a different starting point. Canada’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic despite escalating US-Canada trade tensions.
- Escalating trade tensions haven’t meaningfully expanded tariff coverage, and RBC Economics remains cautiously optimistic on Canada’s outlook.
“Resurging oil prices are adding to inflation worries that may prompt global central banks to (in some cases, further) raise interest rates in the near term. We revised our headline inflation forecasts higher for Canada and the United States, but for now expect gradual and limited passthrough to core inflation.”
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