Staying ahead of shifting market conditions starts with the right intelligence. The June 2026 Monthly Forecast Update from RBC Economics helps you stay a step ahead with timely, forward-looking analysis of the trends shaping Canadian, US and international financial markets.
Highlights
- Canada’s GDP contracted in Q1 2026, but the growth outlook was left unchanged. Per-capita GDP has continued to expand, and the unemployment rate tracks in line with prior forecasts.
- Canada’s economy is behaving like an early-stage recovery, not a recession—a distinction with meaningful implications for portfolio positioning.
- CUSMA exemptions remain intact in the proposed Section 301 tariffs set to replace current Section 122 measures in July, keeping the trade outlook broadly stable.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Fed are both on hold through 2026, but for diverging reasons (moderate excess supply in Canada versus excess demand in the United States), pointing to a widening rate gap risk ahead.
- BoC rate hikes of 25 bps are expected to begin in the first half of 2027, and the Fed is expected to remain on hold through the forecast horizon.
“Canada’s soft GDP data in recent quarters coincided with population declines. After accounting for that, per-capita GDP has continued to grow—consistent with an early-stage recovery instead of a sharp, synchronized contraction typical of a recession.”
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