Staying ahead of shifting market conditions starts with the right intelligence. The May 2026 Monthly Forecast Update from RBC Economics helps you stay a step ahead with timely, forward-looking analysis of the trends shaping Canadian, US and international financial markets.
Highlights
- Oil prices continue to rise above prior assumptions, but US and Canadian growth outlooks are little changed as consumers spend through the initial increase in fuel costs.
- In Canada, consumers spent an average 18% more at gas stations in March and April compared to February—yet spending on non-energy items continued to rise, suggesting households are drawing on savings rather than pulling back.
- US Q2 GDP growth forecast was revised higher from 1.5% to 2.4% on the back of resilient consumer spending, while Canada’s near-term unemployment rate was edged up to 6.7% in Q2 (before gradually improving to 6.3% by Q4).
- Both the BoC and the Fed held interest rates steady and are expected to remain on hold through the end of 2026, with BoC rate hikes not anticipated until 2027
- The ECB introduced a hiking bias and is now expected to raise rates three times in 2026 (June, September and December), bringing its policy rate to 2.75%.
“Amid gloomy labour market reports in Canada this year, we continue to focus on healthier underlying details, resilient domestic demand, and structural constraints on labour supply to support our forecast for a gradually lower unemployment rate this year.”
The third-party content used in this document/site is not intended to and does not constitute an endorsement by RBC Investor Services (RBCIS) of the author or the third-party materials. The content and views within the third-party material are solely those of the third party and do not reflect the opinions of RBCIS. These materials are provided by RBCIS for general information purposes only. RBCIS makes no representation or warranties and accepts no responsibility or liability of any kind for their accuracy, reliability or completeness or for any action taken, or results obtained, from the use of the materials. Readers should be aware that the content of these materials should not be regarded as legal, accounting, investment, financial, or other professional advice, nor is it intended for such use.