The April 2026 Monthly Forecast Update from RBC Economics includes a forward-looking analysis of Canadian, US and international financial market trends.
Highlights
- The headline inflation forecasts were updated for Canada and the United States again with higher oil prices persisting. Headline inflation is now expected to peak in Q2 at 3% in Canada then expected trend lower before ending the year at 2.4%.
- Projections for core inflation, GDP and unemployment rates were largely unchanged from March.
- New US announcements on existing Section 232 industrial metals tariffs and potential new pharmaceutical tariffs have not meaningfully changed the tariff landscape. Tariff revenues have continued to drift lower from their 2025 peak.
- Central banks are recommended to keep an eye on inflation expectations as high oil prices persist, but they are unlikely to rush to respond to the energy supply shock. The outlook sees them holding interest rates through the end of this year.
“Today’s energy supply shock echoes the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the backdrop is fundamentally different. While prices of exposed commodities remain uncertain, we don’t expect elevated oil prices to reignite broad-based inflation in Canada this year.”
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