The March 2026 edition of Market Services FX Spotlight features global market news and insights from RBC Investor Services’ Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Trading Desk.
Headlines
- US airstrikes killed Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after failed Geneva negotiations, spiking oil over $80/bbl and disrupting Strait of Hormuz traffic.
- The US House of Representatives voted 219–211 to end levies on Canada, with legislation heading to the Senate. Despite aligned views in the Senate, the joint resolution on tariffs would still require Trump’s signing.
- USMCA renegotiation uncertainties were once again highlighted following reports that Trump privately considered exiting the pact, which weighed on CAD and MXN.
- The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6–3, prompting Trump to impose immediate 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, effective February 24.
- Canadian inflation cooled significantly in January, with CPI slowing to 2.3% YoY and 0% MoM (below expectations), while core measures hit their slowest pace in a year.
- The Canadian labour market weakened in January with a net loss of 24,800 jobs (gained 44,900 full-time but lost 69,700 part-time workers), though unemployment fell from 6.8% to 6.5%.
- UK political and monetary risks emerged: BoE held rates at 3.75% in a 5–4 split, and Peter Mandelson was arrested for allegedly leaking market-sensitive information to Jeffrey Epstein.
February saw the return of heightened geopolitical uncertainty as the US struck Iran and the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s IEEPA tariffs.
