The February 2026 Monthly Forecast Update from RBC Economics includes a forward-looking analysis of Canadian, US and international financial market trends.
Highlights
- Broadly positive Canadian growth is expected in 2026, supported by real per-capita improvements, and stable US labour conditions looks to limit central bank easing needs.
- Minor forecast adjustments include slightly lower Q4 2025 Canadian GDP growth and marginally lower US unemployment.
- US tariff collection shows signs of slowing, but the full economic impact has yet to materialize. Slow passthrough to the real economy means inflationary pressure continues to build amid affordability concerns.
- Upcoming Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs could impact Canada’s competitive position in US import markets.
- Canada maintains lowest US tariff rate at 3.7% thanks to CUSMA compliance.
“Uncertainty surrounding US protectionist trade policy linger, and the lagged effects of tariffs are still very much in play.”
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