Market Services FX Spotlight

Canada plays tariff balancing act with China deal

Published February 3, 2026 | 5 min read

The February 2026 edition of Market Services FX Spotlight features global market news and insights from RBC Investor Services’ Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Trading Desk.

Headlines

  • Volatility returned in January, as the USD rose early in the month and then quickly reversed course following heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Greenland.
  • Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Beijing on January 14 for the first state visit from a Canadian leader in eight years, in a bid to diversify trading partners in the face of US tariffs and an upcoming USMCA renegotiation.
  • Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it were to strike a free trade agreement with China, resulting in CAD being the worst G10 performer on that day.
  • Canadian inflation printed higher than expected for December, with headline yearly figures coming in at 2.4% versus expectations of 2.2%.
  • The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25%, and gave a forecast of 1.1% growth in 2026, followed by 1.5% in 2027.
  • Donald Trump’s pick for the new Fed Chair was revealed to be Kevin Warsh.

Canadian deals with China resulted in US President Donald Trump once again threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it were to strike a free trade agreement with China.

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