Market Services FX Spotlight

• Volatility peaked in mid-November as a slew of US economic data releases resumed after the government reopened, causing markets to reprice odds of a Federal Reserve cut.
• Canada’s Federal Budget passed by a close 170-to-168 vote, with the Green Party’s Elizabeth May agreeing to back it after Mark Carney committed to meeting climate targets set in Paris.
• Trade talks between the United States and Canada stalled after Ontario aired an anti-tariff advertising campaign. In response, Donald Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff on Canada—one that has yet to be realized.
• Canadian inflation data slowed to 2.2% in October on a year-over-year basis—versus 2.4% the month prior—but it still overshot the 2.1% estimates.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed there would be no October CPI report or October jobs report due to missing household data.
• The Bank of England held rates steady at 4%.

The most recent inflation data likely does not provide the impetus for a December cut from the Bank of Canada, as median and core figures remain elevated relative to the central bank’s mandate.