The October 2025 Monthly Forecast Update from RBC Economics includes a forward-looking analysis of Canadian, US and international financial market trends.
Highlights
“Preserving Canada’s CUSMA tariff exemption remains critical for the near-term outlook. While recent rhetoric from both US and Canadian officials turned more constructive, tariff uncertainty still poses significant downside risk.”
—RBC Monthly Forecast Update
- Slow growth continues to be expected in Canada, with the Bank of Canada expected to cut the interest rate by 25 bps while fiscal policy takes the lead in supporting sectors impacted by trade disruptions.
- Tracking the US economy has become more difficult with the government shutdown curtailing data releases, but available data shows resilient US GDP growth.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to keep gradually reducing the fed funds target range, including a cut in October.
- US duties on Canadian softwood lumber and kitchen cabinets took effect October 14, with de minimis imports suspended and additional threats looming over pharmaceutical products and medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
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