The October 2024 edition of Financial Markets Monthly from RBC Economics includes a forward-looking analysis of Canadian, U.S. and international financial market trends.
Highlights
"Major central banks are well on the path of undoing years of tight monetary policy."
—RBC Financial Markets Monthly
- Stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls for September reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to repeat a 50-basis point rate cut in November or December.
- There are several reasons to think that next year's U.S. economic slowdown will be contained, including an exceptionally wide government budget deficit that continues to support growth. If the soft landing materializes, the Fed will likely pause its rate-cutting cycle at 4% to 4.25%.
- Canada’s economy continues to underperform based on below-trend growth and rising unemployment. Already within the target range, inflation is expected to head lower still, and there is little in the way to stop the Bank of Canada from making faster and larger rate cuts.
- RBC’s revised Canadian forecast calls for two back-to-back 50 bps reductions in the overnight rate in October and December before a return to slower 25 bps cuts at every meeting after. The overnight rate is expected to reach 2% by July 2025.
- The European Central Bank and Bank of England are likely to cut rates by 25 bps at every meeting until May 2025, contingent on continued slowing in domestic inflation pressures.
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